摘要
目的分析济宁市开展布鲁菌病免费咨询检测服务前后发病水平及变化趋势,探讨该政策实施的效果。方法利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统监测数据,选取济宁市2011—2022布鲁菌病发病相关数据进行分析,构建中断时间序列模型,评价干预实施前后效果,并通过Prophet模型对疾病发病进行预测。结果2011—2013年,济宁市布鲁菌病报告年平均发病率为0.71/10万;2014—2019布鲁菌病免费咨询检测服务实施期间,布鲁菌病报告年平均发病率为3.76/10万,布鲁菌病报告发病率增高,月发病较实施前增加19.31人次,差异有统计学意义(β_(2)=19.314,P<0.01);2020—2022年,布鲁菌病年平均报告发病率为4.05/10万,济宁市布鲁菌病发病人次长期呈现逐步升高且增长速度逐步变缓的趋势,季节性趋势明显。结论济宁市布鲁菌病疫情居较高的发病水平,布鲁菌病免费咨询检测政策提高了布鲁菌病的报告率,服务效果良好。
Objective To analyze the incidence of brucellosis and its change before and after the implementation of free brucellosis consultation and testing services in Jining City,so as to explore the effects of policy implementation.Methods From the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention,data related to the incident cases of brucellosis in Jining City from 2011—2022 were extracted for analysis.An interruption time series model was constructed to evaluate the effect of intervention before and after its implementation,and the disease incidence was predicted using the Prophet model.Results The average annual incidence of brucellosis in Jining City was 0.71/100000 in 2011—2013,but increased to 3.76/100000 in 2014—2019 during the implementation of the free brucellosis consultation and testing services.The monthly incidence of brucellosis increased by 19.31 person-times after the implementation of the free brucellosis consultation and testing services compared to the pre-implementation level,with a statistically significant difference(β_(2)=19.314,P<0.01).The average annual incidence of brucellosis was 4.05/100000 in 2020-2022.The number of brucellosis cases in Jining showed a long-term increasing trend,with gradually declining speed and a clear seasonality.Conclusions The incidence of brucellosis in Jining City is still at a high level.The policy of free consultation and testing for brucellosis has improved the reporting rate of brucellosis,achieving good effect.
作者
孙喜红
王干
李琰
樊文娟
尹爱田
姜文国
SUN Xihong;WANG Gan;LI Yan;FAN Wenjuan;YIN Aitian;JIANG Wenguo(Centre for Health Management and Policy Research,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong 250012,China;不详)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期1093-1098,共6页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(2019WS095)
关键词
布鲁菌病
报告发病率
政策干预
免费咨询检测服务
Brucellosis
Reported incidence
Policy interventions
Free consultation and testing
