摘要
近年来金融诈骗现象日益严重,本文试图从个体心理层面解释家庭遭受诈骗损失的原因。利用中国家庭金融调查的微观数据,本文研究了过度自信对诈骗损失概率和损失金额的影响。在利用工具变量法克服了潜在的内生性偏误以及进行多种稳健性检验之后,本文发现过度自信是导致金融诈骗损失的重要原因,对个体遭受诈骗损失的概率具有显著的正向影响,但并不影响诈骗损失的金额。个体的金融知识对过度自信具有调节作用,金融知识将降低过度自信影响诈骗损失概率的程度。过度自信导致金融诈骗受损并不是由于个体的风险偏好差异,而是基于风险感知偏差。
Under the background of increasingly serious financial fraud in recent years,this paper attempts to explain the reasons why households suffer from fraud losses from the perspective of individual psychology.Using the micro data of China Household Finance Survey,this paper studies the impact of overconfidence on the probability and amount of fraud loss.After using the instrumental variable method to overcome the potential endogenous bias and a variety of robustness tests,this paper finds that overconfidence is an important cause of financial fraud losses;it has a significant positive impact on the probability of individual suffering from fraud losses,but does not affect the amount of fraud losses.Individual financial knowledge has a moderating effect on overconfidence in that it reduces the degree to which overconfidence affects the probability of fraud losses.The mechanism of financial fraud caused by overconfidence is not due to the difference in individual risk preference,but based on the bias of risk perception.
出处
《中国研究》
2022年第1期230-252,342-343,共25页
China Studies
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费(YJ201970)资助
关键词
过度自信
诈骗损失
金融知识
overconfidence
fraud loss
financial knowledge
