摘要
提高用电效率,减少污染排放是发展绿色经济的重要措施,由技术进步引发的居民用电引致效应与回弹效应直接关系到政策实施的有效性.文章从家庭电力消费量以及电力效率两个方面出发,基于1998-2018年的数据,建立家庭用电消费量、居民用电价格、电力效率、家电政策、家庭收入以及气候因素的联立结构方程模型,利用3SLS方法进行参数估计,以弹性分析测度了家庭电力消费量与电力效率的引致效应与反弹效应.结果发现:1)消费价格反弹效应短期值为0.0249,长期值为0.0262;消费收入引致效应短期值为0.3781,长期值为-1.8027;消费效率引致效应短期值为-0.0456,长期值为-0.0421;效率价格反弹效应短期值为-0.4935,长期值为-0.6605.2)居民对电价较为敏感,电价上升会降低居民的电力消费量,对提升电力消费效率无显著影响,但提高电力效率有助于减少电力消费量.3)短期内,家庭收入上涨会增加电力消费,但是长期会减少电力消费量,收入提高后,会出现替代效应,居民会更加注重户外娱乐活动,减少室内电力消费.4)由于电力的垄断性属性,通过需求端,即居民电力消费来提高电力效率的可能性较小,政府应通过供给端,即政策的强制性来迫使电力生产厂商或电器厂商来提高电力效率.5)城镇化提高与气温升高均增加了居民的电力消费量,但降雨量增加总体上减少了电力消费量.因此,政府在制定电力政策时,应该充分考虑到反弹效应与引致效应,减轻节能减排的压力.
This study establishes a simultaneous structural equation of household power consumption,residential power price,power efficiency,household appliance policy,household income,and climate factors based on data from 1998 to 2018.Measuring the inducing effect and rebound effect of household electricity consumption and electricity efficiency with 3 SLS model,it starts from two aspects of household power consumption and power efficiency.The results found:1)The short-term value of the consumer price rebound effect is 0.0249,and the long-term value is 0.0262;the short-term value of the consumer income-induced effect is 0.3781,and the long-term value is-1.8027;the short-term value of the consumption efficiency-induced effect is-0.0456 and the long-term value is-0.0421;The short-term value of the efficiency price rebound effect is-0.4935,and the long-term value is-0.6605.2)Residents are more sensitive to electricity prices.An increase in electricity prices will reduce residents’electricity consumption and has no significant impact on improving electricity consumption efficiency.However,improving electricity efficiency will help reduce electricity consumption.3)In the short term,rising household income will increase power consumption,but in the long term it will reduce power consumption.With income increases,there will be a substitution effect.Residents will pay more attention to outdoor entertainment activities and reduce indoor power consumption.4)Due to the monopolistic nature of electricity,it is less likely to improve power efficiency through the demand side,that is,residential power consumption.The government should force power producers or electrical appliance manufacturers to increase power through the supply side.5)Increasing urbanization and rising temperature both increase residents’electricity consumption,but the increase in rainfall reduces overall electricity consumption.Therefore,when the government formulates power policies,it should consider the rebound effect and the inducing effect to reduce the pressure on energy conservation.
作者
张连委
温小霓
ZHANG Lianwei;WEN Xiaoni(School of Economics and Management,Xidian University,Xian 710126)
出处
《系统科学与数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第7期1876-1890,共15页
Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71874133)资助课题
关键词
居民电力消费
电力效率
回弹效应
引致效应
Residential electricity consumption
electricity efficiency
rebound effect
inducing effect
