摘要
地下工程环境复杂,不可预见因素多,普遍存在高风险,且传统的风险评估方法主要是基于概率理论的损失估计,应用在实际工程中有局限性。风险评估的本质是不确定性的定量分析和评价。以地下工程中岩溶隧道掘进施工时发生突水的风险评估为例,进行基于可能性理论的风险裕度模型研究,研究发现在知识和信息匮乏以及考虑人的认知差异的条件下,可能性理论下的裕度模型更加符合工程实际情况,可为工程的决策和管理提供定量依据。
Underground engineering has complicated environment and unforeseen factors,so there are generally high risks.The traditional risk assessment method was mainly based on the loss theory of probability theory,which had limitations in practical projects.The essence of risk assessment was quantitative analysis and evaluation of uncertainty.The risk assessment of water inrush in the construction of karst tunnels in underground engineering as an example,and a risk margin model was conducted based on the possibility theory.It was found that under the condition of lack of information and people’s cognitive differences,the margin model under the possibility theory was more in line with the actual situation of the project,which could provide quantitative basis for the decision-making and management of the project.
作者
戎晓力
文祝
郝以庆
卢浩
熊自明
RONG Xiaoli;WEN Zhu;HAO Yiqing;LU Hao;XIONG Ziming(School of Mechanical Engineering,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,Jiangsu,China;The Rocket Army's Sergeant School of PLA,Qingzhou 262500,Shandong,China;College of Defense Engineering,The Army Engineering University of PLA,Nanjing 210007,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《隧道与地下工程灾害防治》
2019年第2期83-91,共9页
Hazard Control in Tunnelling and Underground Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51479106)
关键词
地下工程
风险评估
可能性理论
定量分析
裕度
underground engineering
risk assessment
possibility theory
quantitative analysis
margin
