摘要
本研究通过分析“全面二孩”政策的实践效果,探索实现“三孩”政策目标的经验和路径。通过建立两分类和多分类Logistic回归模型,对CGSS2015年和2017年数据分析发现,“全面二孩”政策的实施对城市育龄群体生育意愿影响不大,但会影响子女性别偏好;该政策实施后,育龄群体生育女孩意愿明显提高。此外,年龄、受教育程度、户籍和社会保障状况对城市育龄群体生育意愿具有显著影响。提高城市育龄群体的生育意愿,除了人口政策调整,更重要的是通过建立和完善配套性措施,降低育龄群体生育的经济成本和时间成本,从托管、就业、医疗、住房以及养老等多个领域综合施策。
This study explores the experience and path to achieve the goal of the"three-child policy"by analyzing the practical effct of the comprehensive"two-child policy".We establish a binary and a multivariate logistic regression models by analyzing the data of CGSS in 2015 and 2017.It is suggested that the implementation of the"comprehensive-two child policy"has lttle impact on the reproductive intention of urban childbearing age groups,but it affects the gender preference of children.After the implementation of the policy,the willingness of childbearing age groups to give birth to girls has increased significantly.In addition,variables such as age,education level,registered residence and social security status have significant effects on childbearing desire.Therefore,besides the adjustment of population policy,it is more important to improve people's fertility intention by reducing the economic and time cost of childbearing age groups,and carrying out comprehensively policies in more fields such as nursery,employment,medical treatment,housing and pension.
出处
《山东农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2023年第3期122-130,190,共10页
Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)
