摘要
基于个体经验的风险评估与数据驱动风险评估是逮捕社会危险性评估模式的两种基本逻辑。评估模式由“经验驱动”转向“数据驱动”是推进国家治理现代化的重要举措。数据驱动风险评估模式是以客观数据为基础、精算工具为载体、审前服务机构为主体、预测效能验证为保障的评估模式。与基于个体经验的风险评估模式相比,该种模式在评估科学性、透明性、客观性与准确性上有一定优势,是推动我国评估模式转换的外在动力。合理限制评估裁量权,优化资源配置以及推进国家治理现代化,则是推动我国评估模式转换的内生动力。为转换社会危险性评估模式,我们应依靠数据驱动风险评估,并借力精算工具评估风险。同时,实现评估主体专业化转向以及加强评估结果准确性验证。
Experience-driven and data-driven are two ways to assess pre-trial risk.The shift from experience-driven to data-driven risk assessment is an important measure to advance the modernization of national governance.The data-driven risk assessment model are based on data,actuarial tools,pre-trial service agencies and predictive effectiveness verification.Compared with the experience-driven risk assessment,it has obvious advantages in terms of scientificity,transparency,neutrality and accuracy.That's the external motivation to change.Limiting the abuse of risk assessment discretion and optimizing resource allocation and advancing the modernization of national governance are internal motivation to change.In order to change the pre-trial risk assessment model,we should rely on big data and actuarial tools and pre-trial service agencies to assess pre-trial risk.In addition,we should strengthen assessment accuracy verification.
出处
《人权研究（辑刊）》
2023年第1期400-422,468,共24页
Journal of Human Rights
基金
中国博士后科学基金第73批面上资助(2023M734081)
西南政法大学智能司法研究院合规专项课题“企业合规量刑激励机制研究”(ZNHG2022K11)的阶段性成果
