摘要
选取安徽、江苏和浙江3省40个地级市2000—2020年相关指标数据,分析3省份人均碳排放量变化趋势和碳排放强度特征,利用Tapio脱钩模型和EKC曲线模型对比分析3省碳排放与经济增长的短期速度脱钩与长期数量脱钩关系,研究发现:(1)江苏省和安徽省人均碳排放量变化趋势基本一致,呈现出先快速上升,后有小幅波动的趋势;2000—2012年浙江省人均碳排放量不断增加,2012年达到峰值后呈现明显的下降态势。历年来江苏省人均碳排放量最多、浙江省次之、安徽省最少;(2)3省份碳排放强度均呈不断下降的态势,历年来安徽省碳排放强度最高,江苏省次之,浙江省碳排放强度最小;(3)安徽省和江苏省均在2007年实现碳排放与经济增长的速度脱钩,浙江省在2010年后碳排放量增长速度开始低于经济增长速度;(4)长期来看3省份碳排放量与经济增长呈线性关系,分区域来看,安徽省和浙江省碳排放量与人均GDP呈倒“U”型关系,而江苏省碳排放量与人均GDP呈线性关系。
The index data of 40 prefecture-level cities in Anhui,Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces from 2000 to 2020 were selected.The change trend of per capita carbon emissions and the characteristics of carbon emission intensity in these three Provinces were analyzed.Tapio decoupling model and EKC curve model were used to compare and analyze the relationship between short-term speed decoupling and long-term quantity decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth in the three Provinces,the study found that:the per capita carbon emissions change trend analysis shows that Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces per capita carbon emissions are almost the same change trend,present a rapid rise in first,a slight fluctuation trend in recent years.from 2000 to 2012,per capita carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province increased continuously,and decreased significantly in recent years after reaching the peak in 2012.Over the years,Jiangsu Province has the highest per capita carbon emission,followed by Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province.Over the past 21 years,the carbon emission intensity of the three Provinces has been declining.Over the years,Anhui Province has the highest carbon emission intensity,followed by Jiangsu Province,and Zhejiang Province has the lowest carbon emission intensity.Anhui Province and Jiangsu Province achieved decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth in 2007,and the growth rate of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province began to be lower than that of economic growth after 2010.On the whole,there is a linear relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth.In sub regions,there is an inverted“U”relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP in Anhui Province and Zhejiang Province,while there is a linear relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province.
作者
沈旺
江争红
Shen Wang;Jiang Zhenghong(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241003,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2022年第7期4-12,共9页
Coal Economic Research
