摘要
文章采用2010-2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),首先基于A-F方法对我国多维贫困指数(MPI)进行测度和分解,其次利用农户家庭特征变量将贫困户和非贫困户进行倾向得分匹配,对可能导致农户家庭陷入贫困的异质性特征进行集中,估算农户家庭陷入贫困的概率,最后利用异质性处理效应(HTE)估计方法,从多维贫困视角对比分析我国林业扶贫政策对收入贫困和多维贫困减贫效果的差异,并对我国林业扶贫政策减贫效果进行异质性分析,深入剖析我国林业扶贫政策对异质性贫困户的收入贫困和多维贫困减贫效果的差异。研究结果表明:林业扶贫政策的实施对农户的收入贫困和多维贫困均下表现出显著的减贫效果,但由于人口异质性的客观存在,林业扶贫政策减贫效果的异质性也十分突出。在减贫效果的异质性分析中可以发现,对处于第一层级的农户家庭,其多维贫困减贫效果的减贫系数为-0.205,收入贫困的减贫系数为1.593;但对处于第五层级,陷入贫困概率最高的农户家庭,其多维贫困减贫系数仅为-0.097,收入贫困减贫系数仅为0.530。此外,第二层级的回归结果表明,农户陷入贫困概率层级每增加一级,其多维贫困减贫效果降低0.024,收入贫困的减贫效果降幅为0.243。表明林业扶贫政策对农户家庭的减贫效应随着农户陷入贫困概率增加而减弱。而陷入贫困概率较高的农户家庭通常表现出受教育水平较低,缺乏劳动力,具有较高的总抚养比等家庭特征。
By using data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2018,this paper built the Multidimensional Poverty Index(MPI),based on A-F method.Then the household characteristic variables were used to match the tendency score of poor households and non-poor households,to concentrate and estimate the probability of farmers’families falling into poverty.Finally,the differences between the effects of China’s forestry poverty alleviation policy on income poverty and multidimensional poverty reduction were compared,and the heterogeneous effect of China’s forestry poverty alleviation policy,and the difference between the income poverty and multidimensional poverty reduction effect of China’s forestry poverty alleviation policy on heterogeneous poor households were analyzed by the Heterogeneous Treatment Effect(HTE)estimation method.The results showed that:The implementation of forestry poverty alleviation policy had shown remarkable poverty reduction effect on farmers’income poverty and multidimensional poverty,but due to the objective existence of heterogeneity,the heterogeneity of forestry poverty alleviation policy was also very prominent.For rural households at the first level,the coefficient of the multidimensional poverty reduction effect was-0.205,and the coefficient for income poverty was 1.593;but for the fifth level,the rural households with the highest probability of falling into poverty,the poverty reduction coefficient of multidimensional poverty was only-0.097,and the income poverty reduction coefficient was only 0.530.In addition,the regression results of the second level showed that for every increase in the probability of farmers falling into poverty by one level,their multi-dimensional poverty reduction effect was decreased by 0.024,and the poverty reduction effect of income poverty was reduced by 0.243.That is,the poverty reduction effect of forestry poverty alleviation policy on households was weakened with the increase of the probability of farmers falling into poverty.The families of farmers with higher probability of falling into poverty usually showed a low level of education,lack of labour force,and had higher total dependency ratio and other family characteristics.
作者
黎骅逸
王超
李锐
LI Huayi;WANG Chao;LI Rui(Business School,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2021年第11期63-83,共21页
Forestry Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国农村精准扶贫资金效率的研究”(编号:71873020)
