摘要
人工智能技术快速发展产生的职业替代风险给养老保险带来挑战,现有研究缺乏对人工智能职业替代对养老保险影响的精细化实证证据。利用我国职业大典与美国O*NET数据库的匹配数据及统计年鉴公布的就业数据,从养老保险基金收入的角度解决人工智能职业替代带来的养老保险基金供需失衡问题,在构建人工智能职业替代风险对养老保险基金收入影响及机制理论模型的基础上,采用随机森林法,测算了人工智能带来的职业替代率和行业替代率,并预测和检验了其对养老保险基金收入的影响和作用机制。研究结果表明,我国20.86%的职业处于低替代风险,36.74%为中替代风险职业,高替代风险的职业达到了42.4%。预测结果显示,到2040年,与未受人工智能职业替代影响的养老保险基金收入相比,减少14779亿元。职业替代风险会通过替代的“挤压效应”机制,减少养老保险基金收入,职业替代风险每增加1个百分点,养老保险基金收入减少1.167个百分点。替代风险在中西部地区和长三角城市群对养老保险基金收入的影响更大。本文对提前做好应对人工智能职业替代风险的养老保险基金政策储备,具有重要参考价值。
The risk of occupational substution arising from the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology poses a challenge to pension insurance,and existing studies lack fine-grained empirical evidence on the impact of AI occupational substitution on pension insurance.Using the matching data of China's occupational dictionary and the US 0·NET database and the employment data published in the statistical yearbook,we address the imbalance between the supply and demand of pension insurance funds brought about by AI occupational substitution from the perspective of pension insurance fund income,and on the basis of constructing a theoretical model of the impact of AI occupational substitution risk on pension insurance fund income and mechanism,we adopt the random forest method to measure the Occupational substitution rate and industry substitution rate,and predicted and tested its impact and mechanism of action on the income of pension insurance fund.The research results show that 20.86%of occupations in China are in low substitution risk,36.74%are medium substitution risk occupations,and 42.4%are in high substitution risk occupations.The projection results show that by 2040,the income of the pension fund will be reduced by 1,477.9 billion yuan compared with that of the pension fund unaffected by the substitution of AI occupations.Occupational subtitution risk reduces social protection intensity by reducing pension fund income through the“squeeze effect”mechanism of substitution,with each 1 percentage point increase in occupational substitution risk reducing pension fund income by 1.167 percentage points.The impact of substitution risk on pension fund income is greater in the central and western regions and the Yangtze River Delta city cluster.The findings of the study have important reference value for making pension insurance fund policy reserves in advance to cope with the risk of occupational substitution of AI.
作者
何勤
赵世杰
He Qin;Zhao Shijie
出处
《劳动经济评论》
2023年第2期235-262,共28页
Labor Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“人工智能对劳动力市场的冲击及劳动者知识技能转换应对研究”(项目编号:19AGL025)
首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新资助项目的资助
