摘要
完善政府债务管理体制机制,特别是完善以债务率为主的地方政府债务风险评估指标体系,是建立现代财税体制的重要一环。本文研究的问题是如何对不同时间和地区的地方政府债务率差异的影响因素进行分析。首先,本文针对现有研究存在的空白,从债务率的计算公式出发,介绍了债务率的计算和对其差异的初步分析。其次,本文借鉴企业财务分析的杜邦分析法和数据分析的连环替代法、因素分析法,创造性地提出了运用“二分法”和“三分法”分析债务率差异。这种方法通过引入一般公共预算支出、一般公共预算收入等不同的中间变量,丰富了债务率公式的内涵,细化了分析影响债务率的因素。同时,以A、B两省连续两年财政数据为例,运用上述方法,通过数据分析得出导致两省债务率地区差异和时间差异的主要原因,印证了方法的可行性和有效性。研究发现,收入结构、财政自给情况、持续稳定收入对债务的偿还能力、债务压力等因素均会影响债务率变化。最后,本文从控制债务总量、因地制宜出台政策并适时更新、研究更加科学的政府债务分析管控方法、把握好发展与负债之间的矛盾等方面提出政策建议,并将细化分析变量、运用“支出法”分解、纳入更多省份面板数据分析等作为下一步的研究方向。
Improving the government debt management system and mechanism and the government debt risk assessment index system mainly based on the debt ratio are important parts of establishing a modern fiscal and taxation system.The problem to study is how to analyze the factors affecting government debt ratios’differences in different time and regions.Firstly,aiming at the gaps in existing research,starting from the calculation formula of debt ratio,this paper introduces the calculation of debt ratio and a preliminary analysis of its differences.Secondly,this paper uses the DuPont analysis method,the serial substitution method and factor analysis method,creatively proposes the“2-part-division method”and“3-part-division method”to analyze the difference in debt ratios.This method enriches the content of the debt ratio formula and analyzes the factors affecting the debt ratio in detail by introducing different intermediate variables such as general public budget expenditure and general public budget revenue.At the same time,taking the fiscal data of provinces A and B for two consecutive years as an example,this paper uses the above method to find the main factors for the regional and time differences in the debt ratios of the two provinces through data analysis,which proves the feasibility and effectiveness of the above method.The study found that factors such as income structure,fiscal self-sufficiency,the ability to repay debt with sustained and stable income,and debt pressure will all affect the change in debt ratios.This paper proposes the next research direction from the aspects of using panel data analysis,further refining the analysis variables,using the“expenditure method”to divide the debt ratio formula and so on.This paper puts forward policy suggestions from the aspects of controlling the total amount of debt,introducing and updating policies according to local conditions properly,researching more scientific methods of government debt analysis and control and balancing development and debt.
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2022年第4期25-34,共10页
Development Finance Research
关键词
地方政府债务率
连环替代法
因素分析法
债务压力
财政自给
Government Debt Ratio
Serial Substitution Method
Factor Analysis Method
Debt Pressure
Fiscal Self-sufficiency
