摘要
《可再生能源法》颁布后,我国风力发电行业取得了快速的发展,2019年,风电并网装机容量占全国的近10.44%、发电量占全国的5.5%。预测到2035年前,风电行业仍将保持强劲的发展势头,风电累计装机将超过当前装机的4倍以上。未来十五年累计投资总量达4万亿元,融资需求约2.8万亿元。随着风电装机规模不断增加,一方面风电设备的制造成本逐步下降,单位造价不断降低,风电的发展模式将由补贴驱动转向成本驱动;另一方面,限电弃风、补贴滞后、补贴缺口不断增大等问题突出。2019年,国家出台一系列措施促进可再生能源消纳,推行竞争配置方式,促进风电平价上网。建议银行前瞻性地面对风电行业发展中的阶段性问题,以开发性金融理论为指导,充分发挥在传统"两基一支"领域的优势,研究并提出度电成本分析,科学预测项目现金流,从客户、项目、地区等维度对授信项目进行评判,构建有效的信用结构,通过资产证券化、银团贷款等方式防控集中度风电,支持风电行业持续健康发展。
After the promulgation of the"Renewable Energy Law"in 2005,China’s wind power industry has achieved rapid development.In 2018,China’s wind power installed capacity has surpassed 1/3 of global total,grid-connected installed capacity accounts for 10%of the country,and power generation accounts for 5.23%.It is predicted that by 2035,China’s wind power industry will maintain a strong growth trend.The cumulative installed capacity of wind power will exceed 4 times of the current installed capacity,with a total investment of 40 trillion RMB.With the increasing scale of installation and technological advancement,on the one hand,the manufacturing cost of wind power equipment is gradually decreasing,with unit cost decreasing,and the development model will evolve from subsidy-driven to cost-driven;on the other hand,power cut-off,subsidy lag,and subsidy gap become serious issues.In 2019,the state intensively introduced a series of measures to promote renewable energy consumption,competitive allocation,and price-parity.It is recommended that CDB face the above-mentioned problems in a forw ard-looking manner guided by the development finance theories.We should conduct the unit cost analysis of electricity,and scientifically measure the cash flow of the project from different dimensions of customers,projects,regions,etc.Meanwhile,effective credit structure and credit policies such as asset securitization shall be taken into account to foster the healthy development of the wind power industry.
作者
李颂中
刘通
张震宇
张健
Li Songzhong;Liu Tong;Zhang Zhenyu;Zhang Jian
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2020年第1期77-88,共12页
Development Finance Research
关键词
风电
补贴
开发性金融
授信政策
Wind power
Price subsidy
Development f inance
Credit policy
