摘要
假设研究是历史学、经济学等不少社会科学的重要分析方法。依据中外各种客观研究数据和模型,以历史假设的理路研究苏联历史,无疑是全新的研究视界。基于这样的思路和研究结论,本文特提出苏联综合国力“两个如果”的历史命题:如果没有帝国主义德国法西斯入侵而导致苏联重大损失,那么,1990年苏联被摧毁前夕的综合国力将超过美国;如果没有戈尔巴乔夫、叶利钦领导集团的背叛,按照苏、美两国发展的惯性,2020年苏联的综合国力将超过美国。通过综合克莱因“国力方程”、黄硕风“综合国力动态方程模型”等研究成果,对比使用苏联统计资料、联合国统计资料等不同来源数据,可以看出:首先,在“第一个如果”的假设下,经过测算,苏联的经济力在被摧毁前夕相较于历史真实水平将超过美国,与经济力大发展相适应的综合国力将超过美国;其次,在“第二个如果”的假设下,2020年苏联经济国力和综合国力将全面超过美国。社会主义优越于资本主义已由事实所证明,苏联被摧毁主要是戈尔巴乔夫等苏共领导集团主动背叛的内因与美西方资本主义国家长期围剿的外因共同作用的结果。
Hypothesis research is an important analysis method in many social sciences such as history and economics.According to various objective research data and models at home and abroad,it is undoubtedly a new research vision to study the history of the Soviet Union for a century by hypothesis research.Based on such ideas and research conclusion,this paper puts forward the historical proposition of“two ifs”of the comprehensive national power of the Soviet Union:if there had been no major losses in the Soviet Union due to the fascist invasion of imperialist Germany,the national power of the Soviet Union would have exceeded that of the United States on the eve of its destruction in 1990;if there had been no betrayal by Gorbachev and Yeltsin’s leadership groups,according to the development law of the Soviet Union and the United States at that time,the national power of the Soviet Union would have exceeded that of the United States in 2020.By referring to Cline’s“national power equation”,Huang Shuofeng’s“dynamic equation model of comprehensive national power”and other research achievements,and comparing different sources of data,such as Soviet statistics and United Nations statistics,this paper draws the following conclusions.Firstly,under the“first if”,it is estimated that the economic power of the Soviet Union will exceed that of the United States on the eve of its destruction,and the comprehensive national power corresponding to the development of economic power will exceed that of the United States.Secondly,under the“second if”,the Soviet Union’s economic power and overall national power will exceed United States’in 2020.The facts proved that the socialism is superior to capitalism.The destruction of the Soviet Union was mainly the result of a combination of internal and external factors.The internal cause is the betrayal of the Soviet Communist Party leadership group including Gorbachev,and the external cause is the prolonged siege by the U.S.and Western capitalist countries.
作者
程恩富
刘长明
李卓儒
潘越
Cheng Enfu;Liu Changming;Li Zhuoru;Pan Yue
出处
《政治经济学研究》
2022年第4期82-101,共20页
Chinese Journal of Political Economics
关键词
苏联综合国力
美国综合国力
假设研究方法
苏联被摧毁主因
马克思主义政治经济学
Comprehensive National Power of the Soviet Union
Comprehensive National Power of the United States
Hypothesis Research Method
The Main Causes of the Soviet Union’s Destruction
Marxist Political Economy
