摘要
2016年6月24日,英国脱欧公投公布结果,时任英国首相卡梅伦宣告脱欧阵营获胜。消息一出不仅英镑汇率大跌,大多数非美元货币汇率也明显走低。外汇市场是流动性最强、交易量最大的金融市场,对重大事件高度敏感。本文系统梳理英国脱欧始末和开启脱欧进程后的关键事件,运用事件分析法构建分析主要货币汇率变化趋势的模型,以英镑、欧元、日元、人民币汇率数据为研究对象,深入探究政治事件影响汇率的渠道和程度。研究结果表明,英镑与欧元始终受到英国脱欧事件的显著影响,与无协议脱欧风险正相关,即在无协议脱欧风险上升时币值走低,无协议脱欧风险消除时币值走高。相比于欧元,英镑受到的影响更强烈。日元和人民币的汇率仅在英国脱欧公投事件中受到显著影响,较少受后续脱欧进程的影响。本文的研究有利于动态了解和把握主要货币汇率波动的内在规律和差异性,以便我国更好地应对黑天鹅事件冲击,做好人民币汇率预期管理。
On June 24,2016,the results of the Brexit referendum were announced.British Prime Minister Cameron declared the Brexit camp to win.As soon as the news came out,not only did the pound exchange rate plummet,but the exchange rates of most non-US dollar currencies also fell significantly.The foreign exchange market is the most liquid financial market with the largest trading volume,and it is highly sensitive to major events.This paper systematically sorts out the beginning and the end of Brexit as well as the key events after the start of the Brexit process.This paper uses event analysis to build a model that analyzes the trend of the exchange rate of major currencies.It uses the data of the EUR,GBP,JPY and RMB exchange rates as the research objects to explore political events in depth.The results of the study show that the British pound and the euro have always been significantly affected by the Brexit event,and the exchange rates are positively correlated with the risk of no-deal Brexit.That is,when the risk of no-deal Brexit rises,the currency value will go down,and when the risk of no-deal Brexit will be eliminated,the currency value will go up.Compared with the euro,the pound is more strongly affected.The exchange rates of Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan were only significantly affected by the Brexit referendum event,and were less affected by the subsequent Brexit process.This article explores the dynamic understanding and grasp of the internal laws and differences of the exchange rates fluctuations of major currencies.So that our country can better respond to the impact of the black swan event and manage the expectations of RMB exchange rate.
作者
涂永红
赵雅梅
TU Yong-hong;ZHAO Ya-mei(School of Finance,Renmin University of China)
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期83-96,共14页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社科基金艺术学重大项目“中国艺术品市场发展研究”(20ZD07)的资助
关键词
英国脱欧
主要货币
汇率波动
事件分析法
Brexit
major currencies
exchange rate fluctuations
event analysis
