摘要
为探究中国省级政府债务水平的空间格局及动态演进,以2009—2018年中国各省份地方政府债务数据为样本,运用熵权法合成各省市风险指数面板数据,采用ESDA和马尔科夫链分析中国各省近10年来债务风险聚集情况以及演变趋势。结果表明,中国省际债务风险相关性表现为四个阶段:下降—上升—下降—稳定。东部地区城市呈现HH型集聚,西部地区城市呈现LL型集聚,且分布较为稳定。利用马尔科夫链分析债务风险的演变趋势,发现研究期内存在高风险、中高风险、低风险三个比较稳定的趋同俱乐部,提出控制地区间债务风险集聚、严格把控银行不良贷款、改进完善投融资平台的运作机制和缓释政府基金风险等建议。
In order to explore the spatial pattern of the development level of provincial government debt in China,this paper takes the local government debt data of each province in China from 2009 to 2018 as the sample and integrates the risk index panel data of each province by using the entropy method.It analyzes the concentration situation of debt risk and development trend of each province in recent 10 years applying ESDA and Markov chain.The empirical results show that the correlation of debt risk in China is divided into four stages at the provincial level:decline stage,rise stage,decline stage and stability stage.Cities in the eastern region show HH type agglomeration,while cities in the western region show LL type agglomeration,and the distribution is relatively stable.By using Markov chain to analyze the evolution trend of debt risk,it is found that there are three relatively stable convergence clubs during the study period:high-risk type,moderate-risk type and low-risk type respectively.It puts forward some suggestions:controlling the regional debt risk concentration,strictly controlling and managing the non-performing loans of bank,improving the operation mechanism of investment and financing platform,and slowly releasing government fund risk and so on.
作者
方磊
聂桂博
张雪薇
宋星辰
王一栋
FANG Lei;NIE Guibo;ZHANG Xuewei;SONG Xingchen;WANG Yidong(School of Finance,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan,China;College of Resources and Environment,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan,China;Baotou Teacher’s College,Baotou 014030,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期23-29,99,共8页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18CJL030)
河南省重点研发与推广专项(软科学研究)项目(212400410291)
河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2020ZZJH042)
河南省软科学重大项目(202400410031)
关键词
政府债务
隐性债务
马尔可夫链
风险防控
金融风险
投融资
government debt
implicit debt
Markov chain
risk prevention and control
financial risk
investment and financing
