摘要
【目的】研究渭干河上游与黑孜河交汇处水沙变化特征,为克孜尔水库水沙情势的预测及水资源调配管理提供依据。【方法】采用线性趋势法及Mann-kendall秩次检验法分析水沙序列的变化趋势;采用Mann-kendall参数检验法、有序聚类法及滑动t检验法分析水沙序列的突变点;采用基于小波分析的EMD分解方法分析水沙序列的周期性。采用双累积曲线法分析降水及人类活动对入库水沙变化的影响程度,并对其他影响因素进行定性分析。【结果】近60 a来克孜尔水库入库水沙呈上升趋势,径流量及输沙量的突变年份分别为1994年、1992年,入库年径流量存在7 a、17 a、30 a的周期,年输沙量存在6 a、11 a、26 a的周期。降雨和人类活动对径流量的影响程度分别为485.37%、-385.37%,对输沙量的影响程度分别为73.57%、26.43%,太阳活动、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)等因素对水沙变化也存在一定的影响作用。【结论】克孜尔水库上游流域年降水量对径流量及输沙量的影响均大于人类活动,人类活动对该区域的水沙变化影响不大。
【Objective】The variation characteristics of water and sediment in the confluence of the upper Weigan River and Heizi River were studied in order to provide basis for the prediction of water and sediment situation and water resources allocation management of Kizil Reservoir.【Method】The trend of water-sediment series variation was analyzed by using the linear trend method and the Mann-kendall rank test method.The mutation points of the water-sediment series was analyzed with the methods of the Mann-kendall parameter test,the ordered clustering and the sliding t-test.The periodicity of water-sediment series was analyzed with the EMD decomposition method based on wavelet analysis.The impact of precipitation and human activities on the water-sediment changes in the reservoir was analyzed by using the double cumulative curve method,and other influencing factors are qualitatively analyzed.【Result】In the past 60 years,both water and sediment entering the Kizil Reservoir showed an upward trend.The abrupt changes of runoff and sediment delivery occurred in the year 1994 and 1992,respectively.The annual runoff of the reservoir had a cycle of 7 a,17 a,and 30 a,and the amount of sediment transport had a cycle of 6 a,11 a,and 26 a.The degree of the influence of precipitation and human activities on runoff was 485.37%and-385.37%,respectively,and that on sediment transport was 73.57%and 26.43%,respectively.In addition,solar activity and(ENSO)also had a certain degree of influence on water and sediment changes.【Conclusion】The annual precipitation in the upper reaches of the Kizil Reservoir has a greater impact on runoff and sediment transport than human activities,and human activities have little impact on water and sediment changes in the region.
作者
张明旺
侍克斌
朱跃亮
孔选昭
姚海坤
ZHANG Mingwang;SHI Kebin;ZHU Yueliang;KONG Xuanzhao;YAO Haikun(College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Xinjiang Kezil Reservoir Authority,Aksu 842313,China)
出处
《甘肃农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2022年第2期153-163,共11页
Journal of Gansu Agricultural University
基金
新疆水利科技专项(T201801)
关键词
输沙量
年径流量
降水量
EMD分解
双累积曲线法
克孜尔水库
Sediment entering
annual runoff
precipitation
EMD decomposition
double accumulation curve method
Kizil Reservoir
