摘要
公共政策的学术研究同其他社会科学一样,都追求对因果机制的解释。然而,现实世界的公共政策过程往往非常复杂,传统的量化研究方法很难完全解释因果机制。近年来,因果过程追踪(Causal Process Tracing,简称CPT)作为一种基于溯因推理逻辑的实证研究方法,在多方法研究(multi-method research)中得到越来越广泛的应用。该方法使用严密的案例内推断来追踪事件,透过过程分析撬开将原因和结果联系起来的因果机制,具有识别并纠正虚假因果关联以及遗漏变量偏误等内生性问题等方法论优势,有助于弥合质性研究和量化研究的鸿沟。因果过程追踪方法不受意识形态的限制,其包容的理论多元性为公共政策研究提供了独特的分析视角和框架,具有较高的推介价值。在梳理因果过程追踪方法发展脉络的基础上,本文选取了近期发表在著名国际学术期刊上的4篇关于因果过程追踪方法的学术论文,着重评介这一方法在公共政策学术研究中的价值和操作策略,以期推动中国公共政策研究的方法论多元化。
Public policy research,like other social sciences,seeks to explain causal mechanisms.However,real-world public policy processes are extremely complex,making it difficult for traditional quantitative methods to fully elucidate causality.The recent years have seen a burgeoning of causal process tracing(CPT)as an abductive reasoning method in multi-method research.Tracing events within cases,the CPT method seeks to elucidate causal mechanisms through a rigorous set of analytical protocols.The methodological strength of CPT lies in its ability to overcome missing variable errors and false causality.Highly useful in bridging the gaps between qualitative and quantitative approaches,the use of CPT is not bound by political contexts and therefore is highly recommended for the policy research community.Built on a concise review of CPT,this article selects four excellent research articles recently published in leading international journals.With the goal of promoting methodological diversity in China’s public policy research,the article discusses the methodological value of the CPT method,as well as its operational strategies in public policy research.
作者
孙婧婧
和经纬
SUN Jingjing;HE Jingwei(Institute of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies,Sun Yat-Sen University;Department of Asian and Policy Studies,The Education University of Hong Kong)
出处
《公共管理评论》
2020年第4期214-229,共16页
China Public Administration Review
关键词
因果过程追踪
溯因推理
因果机制
贝叶斯推断
公共政策研究方法
causal process tracing
abductive reasoning
causal mechanism
Bayesian inference
public policy research methods
