摘要
从历史文献资料中提取陕西省明代(1368-1644 AD)水旱灾害记录,利用灾害等级法、湿润指数法、M-K检验、小波分析等方法,对其水旱灾害与干湿变化特点进行研究。结果表明:明代陕西省气候总体以干旱为主,按照干湿特征可分为四个时段:1368-1416年较为湿润;1417-1526年,以干旱为主要特征;1527-1616年,干湿年际波动大,水旱灾害交替发生,但整体上略为偏湿;1617-1644年,干旱程度最为严重。干湿变化具有显著的转折性和周期性,在1401和1615年2次发生了干旱突变,并分别在1423与1630年突变程度达到显著性水平;具有70-75a和25-27a的周期变化,其中70-75a尺度的周期震荡为主周期。空间上,陕南、关中、陕北三大区域中,以陕北水旱灾害最为频发且灾害等级较高。明代陕西省水旱灾害发生规律与北半球温带气候总体变化大致相同,同时与全球气候变化基本一致,其变化过程是对全球气候变化的响应。
Records of water and drought weather disasters in the Ming dynasty(1368-1644 AD)of Shaanxi province from historical documents were extracted by using the water and drought disaster grading method,the humidity index method,the M-K test,wavelet analysis etc.,the characteristics of water and drought disasters and dry and wet changes were studied.The study found that during the period of 1368-1644,the climate in Shaanxi province was dominated by drought.According to the frequency of drought and water disasters,the period could be identified into four stages.It was relatively humid from 1368 to 1416,and the climate was characterized by drought from 1417-1526.From 1527 to 1616,the fluctuations of wet and dry was great,the water and drought disasters happened alternately,but the overall humidity was slightly wet.From 1617 to 1644,the degree of drought was the most serious.Drought and wet changes had significant transition and periodicity,with drought mutations occurred twice in 1401 and 1615,and the degree of mutation reached a significant level in 1423 and 1630,respectively.It had a periodic variation of 70-75 a and 25-27 a,in which the periodic oscillation of the 70-75 a scale was the main period.In terms of space,in the three major regions,Southern Shaanxi,Guanzhong and Northern Shaanxi,the water and droughts in northern Shaanxi was the most frequent and the disaster level was high.The occurrence of water and drought disasters in Shaanxi province in the Ming dynasty was roughly the same as the overall change in the temperate climate in the northern hemisphere.At the same time,it was basically consistent with global climate change,and its change process was a response to global climate change.
作者
殷淑燕
徐潇悦
党群
YIN Shuyan;XU Xiaoyue;DANG Qun(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,X i’an 710119,China)
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期115-122,共8页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJA770021)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZS009)资助.
关键词
明代
陕西省
水旱灾害
干湿特征
湿润指数
Ming dynasty
Shaanxi province
water and drought disaster
wet and dry characteristics
humidity index
