摘要
讨论两级多产品供应链中需求相关时的牛鞭效应.下游零售商从能力无限制的上游供应商处订货来满足相关的市场需求.当零售商面临的需求平稳时,若零售商采用简单移动平均法预测需求,证明了供应链中的牛鞭效应的存在性,并给出了其量化表达式.进一步提出了在一定条件下可有效消除牛鞭效应的需求预测方法.
This paper deals with the bullwhip effect in a two-echelon multiple products supply chain with correlated market demands.The downstream retailer procures products from an un-capacitated upstream supplier to meet the correlated market demands of multiple products.When the market demands are stationary,we prove the existence of the bullwhip effect and show an analytical formula for the bullwhip effect,if the retailer uses a simple moving average to estimate the market demands.Furthermore,this paper proposes a...
出处
《系统工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第4期479-483,共5页
Journal of Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70725001
70821001)
关键词
牛鞭效应
需求预测
订货提前期
需求相关性
bullwhip effect
demand forecasting
lead time of order
demand correlation
