摘要
为了研究航空事故发生的时间规律,找出潜在原因并制定相应管理对策,根据AviationSafety Network 2006～2011年697起航空事故,利用系统聚类和总体分布的卡方检验等方法对航空事故的时间特征进行统计分析,结果表明:07:00～24:00时之间,航空事故的高发时段是11:00～12:00时和15:00～16:00时,综合事故起数、死亡事故起数和死亡人数3个指标,表明该时段的事故状况非常严重,属于非常危险时段;00:00～07:00时之间,6:00～7:00时的事故状况最严重,属于危险时段。建议航空公司加强飞行量高峰时间、人体昼夜节律低谷或技能水平低谷等危险时间的安全管理,保证飞行期间的警觉性。
For studying the time distribution of aviation accidents to identify the potential causes and to take effective measures,697 aviation accidents from 2006 to 2011 in Aviation Safety Net were analyzed by hierarchical clustering method and chi-square test.The result indicates that the peak hour of aviation accidents appears during 11:00-12:00 and 15:00-16:00 in day time,in which the accident situation is the most serious considering the total number of accidents,number of fatal accidents and death toll;during 0:00-7:00,the accident situation in 6:00-7:00 is the most serious.It is suggested that airlines should strengthen safety management in the dangerous period,such as flight peak hours,low circadian rhythm,and low skill levels,to maintain crew member's alertness and performance during the flight.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2013年第2期83-87,共5页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(批准号:2010CB734105)
国家自然科学基金资助(批准号:60979009)资助
关键词
航空事故
时间分布
系统聚类
昼夜节律
执勤时间
aviation accident
time distribution
hierarchical cluster
circadian rhythm
duty time
