摘要
According to the characteristics of frequent water level step-variation in the Wanquan Well, the step-variation frequency change on the time axis can be regarded as a sequence of step-variation. A study of the relationship between the process of development and evolution of the sequential step-variation and the regional seismicity indicated that the sequential step-variation anomalies are rather better in coincidence with the time, magnitude and frequency of regional seismic activities, which may predict the seismicity trend in months. Furthermore, on this basis, if the water level changes in a characteristic manner, the seismic regime during the time period from several days to 20 days or more may be evaluated. By using the method presented in this paper we had a prediction about the Baotou ML=6.6 earthquake on May 3, 1996. This event occurred within the predicted time span but with a less magnitude and a little location deviation.
According to the characteristics of frequent water level step-variation in the Wanquan Well, the step-variation frequency change on the time axis can be regarded as a sequence of step-variation. A study of the relationship between the process of development and evolution of the sequential step-variation and the regional seismicity indicated that the sequential step-variation anomalies are rather better in coincidence with the time, magnitude and frequency of regional seismic activities, which may predict the seismicity trend in months. Furthermore, on this basis, if the water level changes in a characteristic manner, the seismic regime during the time period from several days to 20 days or more may be evaluated. By using the method presented in this paper we had a prediction about the Baotou ML=6.6 earthquake on May 3, 1996. This event occurred within the predicted time span but with a less magnitude and a little location deviation.
