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基于GARP的枣大球蚧在新疆的适生区分析初探 被引量:2

Preliminary Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution Areas for Eulecanium gigantean in Xinjiang Using GARP Modeling System
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摘要 【目的】通过新疆枣树重要害虫枣大球蚧的适生性分析,初步明确该虫在新疆的适生区域,为其科学监测与防治提供参考和依据。【方法】主要运用GARP生态位模型结合ArcGIS空间分析模块预测该虫在新疆潜在的地理分布。【结果】枣大球蚧在新疆的潜在适生区域非常广泛,除北疆的阿勒泰地区、塔城地区、昌吉州、乌鲁木齐市周边地区及南疆的塔克拉玛干沙漠和东疆哈密地区、吐鲁番地区以外,其余地州大部分地区均为枣大球蚧潜在适生分布区。在新疆具有较强的蔓延趋势,对新疆的林果业发展构成。【结论】枣大球蚧在新疆具有较强的蔓延趋势,对新疆的林果业发展构成了潜在的威胁,建议检疫部门做好检疫工作,防止枣大球蚧的进一步传入。 【Objective】This project aims to have a preliminary understanding of the suitable area of the jujube important pest- Eulecanium gigantean in Xinjiang through the adaptability analysis and provide reference and basis for the scientific monitoring and prevention of the pest.【Method】The GARP modeling combined with the ArcGIS spatial analysis of module was used to predict the potential geographic distribution of the pest. 【Result】The potential suitable area of Eulecanium gigantean in Xinjiang is very wide. Besides Altay area,Tacheng area,Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,the surrounding area of Urumqi City,the Taklimakan Desert in Southern Xinjiang,Hami and Turpan areas and many other places in Xinjiang are potential suitable areas for the survival of Eulecanium gigantean. The result showed that Eulecanium gigantean had strong spreading tendency and was dangerous for fruit industry in Xinjiang. 【Conclusion】Eulecanium gigantean in Xinjiang had strong spreading ability and is a threat to the fruit industry of Xinjiang. It is recommended that quarantine departments should make more strict measures to prevent the spreading of the pest.
出处 《新疆农业科学》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2013年第12期2246-2253,共8页 Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences
基金 新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划课题(201130102-3)
关键词 枣大球蚧 GARP生态位模型 ARCGIS 分布预测 Eulecanium gigantean GARP ArcGIS dDistribution prediction
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