摘要
文章考察了1981～2011年中国东部地区11个省(直辖市)在计划生育政策和经济增长背景下的人均财政收入的变动特征。通过建立向量自回归模型,分析了东部地区11个省(直辖市)人均消费、人均投资和人均进出口对人均财政收入的动态影响。结果表明:实施计划生育政策、人口自然增长率不断下降和经济快速增长,直接促进了东部地区人均财政收入的增长;人均财政收入受影响程度因11个省(直辖市)开放程度、市场成熟程度以及经济发展程度而有差异;开放程度较低的省,其进出口对经济增长的延续效应也低,投资对经济增长的促进效应时间较短,消费和投资结构在各省(直辖市)存在差异。
In this paper,we have investigated features of per capita fiscal revenue in China's eastern 11provinces(independent municipalities)under the influence of birth control policy and economic growth since 1981to 2011.By building vector autoregression model,we have analyzed dynamic influences on per capita fiscal revenue in the above region from per capita consumption level,per capita level of investment and per capita level of import and export trade.The empirical results show that the promotion of per capita fiscal revenue in those provinces directly relate to the implementation of one-child policy,declination of natural population growth rate and the rapid growth of economy.Besides,different levels of opening-up,market mature degree and economic growth have different influences on per capita fiscal revenue.In the provinces with lower level of opening-up, the import and export trade has lower continued effect on economic growth,and the investment level has shorter time of promoting effect on economic growth.And the consumption levels and investment structures are different among the provinces.
出处
《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2013年第4期53-59,共7页
Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)
关键词
经济增长
人口变动
人均财政收入
economic growth
changes in population
per capita fiscal revenue
