摘要
基于秦岭—淮河南北气象站点逐日降水数据和全国0.5°×0.5°逐月降水格网数据,选取16个极端降水指数,辅以趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和相关分析等气候诊断方法,分析了1960-2013年秦岭—淮河南北极端降水时空变化特征,探讨了极端降水变化与ENSO事件的关系。结果表明:11960-2013年秦岭—淮河南北除长江下游降水呈增加趋势外,其他区域降水均呈下降趋势;2极端降水变化主要表现为:降水日数减少,降水强度上升,突发性强降水事件增多,连续性干旱事件增多;在空间上,秦巴山地、长江下游和黄河下游以极端降水强度上升为主,关中平原、巫山山区和四川盆地以极端干旱强度上升为主;3在影响因素方面,秦岭—淮河南北极端降水与ENSO事件关系密切。在厄尔尼诺年,秦岭—淮河南北春季极端降水偏多,夏季和全年偏少;在拉尼娜年,春季极端降水偏少,秋季和全年偏多。就各个区域而言,在厄尔尼诺年,黄河下游、关中平原、秦巴山地和四川盆地极端降水呈下降趋势,淮河平原极端降水呈上升趋势,长江下游和巫山山区响应并不明显。
Based on the monthly precipitation of a 0.5°×0.5° grid dataset and the daily precipitation observations of 135 meteorological stations released by the National Meteorological Information Center of China, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling- Huaihe region during 1960- 2013, using the methods of trend analysis, Sen + Mann- Kendall model, and correlation analysis.More specifically, we analyzed the relationship between ENSO and the observed extreme precipitation. The results are as follows:(1) the precipitation showed an increasing trend in the lower reach of the Yangtze River and a decreasing tendency in the other regions;(2) extreme precipitation analysis indicates a declining trend in rainy days and an increasing trend in precipitation intensity. The number of continuous drought events increased.Spatially, the regions with increasing intensity of extreme precipitation were mainly distributed in the QinlingBashan Mountains and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, whereas there were more drought events in the Guanzhong Plain, Wushan Mountains, and Sichuan Basin;(3) Extreme precipitation had a close relationship with ENSO in the study region. In El Ni?o years, more precipitation was found in the spring but there was less precipitation in the summer and the whole year. In La Ni?a years, there was less precipitation in the spring and more precipitation in the autumn and the whole year. The responses of extreme precipitation events to El Ni?o exhibited spatial differences. Most of the regions with decreasing extreme precipitation in El Ni?o years were distributed in the lower reach of the Yellow River, the Guanzhong Plain and Qinling- Bashan Mountains, as well as the Sichuan Basin, while the region with increasing extreme precipitation was the Huaihe Plain. The lower reach of the Yangtze River and the Wushan Mountains showed no clear response to ENSO.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期354-363,共10页
Progress in Geography
基金
地表过程模型与模拟创新研究群体科学基金项目(41321001)
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955402)
关键词
气候变化
极端降水
时空变化
秦岭—淮河南北
climate change
extreme precipitation
spatiotemporal change
north and south of the QinlingHuaihe region
