摘要
目的:探究我国卫生人力资源供给状况,为达到我国卫生人力资源供需平衡提供规划方向。方法:在分析、比较灰色预测、二次回归和神经网络单项预测模型的基础上,采用方差倒数法进行权重分配,构建我国卫生人力资源的组合预测模型。结果:组合预测模型与单项预测模型相比预测误差小,预测的精度和稳定性更好,可以作为我国卫生人力资源预测的有效工具。结论:根据卫计委医药卫生中长期人才发展规划,未来我国对于卫生人力的需求高于供给,卫生人力仍然较为缺乏,为此应该进一步加大卫生人力培养力度,提高卫生人力素质,合理配置卫生人力资源。
Objective:To analyze on supply situation of human resources on health in China so as to provide direction to achievebalance between supply and demand of human resources on health in China.Methods:Based on analyzing and comparing grey pre-diction,quadratic regression and neural network prediction model,reciprocal method was applied to perform distribute the weight soas to set up the combination forecasting model of human resources on health in China.Results:The combination forecasting model isbetter than the single forecasting model,since it has minimum prediction error,better accuracy and stability of prediction.The combi-nation forecasting model could be used as an effective tool to predict human resources on health in China.Conclusion:According tomedical and health long-term talent development planning issued by National Health and Family Planning Commission,the demandfor human resources for health was greater than the supply,while the human resources on health was still relatively insufficient.Itneeded to further strengthen cultivation of human resources on health,improve the quality of human resources on health and reason-ably distribute human resources on health.
出处
《中国卫生经济》
北大核心
2015年第5期21-24,共4页
Chinese Health Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70873093)
美国中华医学基金会(CMB)项目(Grant Number 10-029)
关键词
卫生人力资源
组合预测
模型构建
human resources on health
combination forecasting
model construction
