摘要
矿业是国民经济的重要组成部分,矿业发展理论是科学判断矿业发展趋势的重要理论支撑。本文以产业经济学理论为指导,提出了资源禀赋和矿产资源需求两大影响矿业发展的主要因素。分析了百年来全球矿业发展历史,并将全球矿业发展历史划分为缓慢发展期(1900-1945年)、黄金发展期(1946-1972年)、矿业低迷期(1973-1994年)、矿业繁荣期(1995-2008年)和矿业平台期(2009-至今)五个阶段。本文提出了理想状态下的矿业发展周期模型,揭示了经济发展与资源供需、资源价格和矿业发展的内在关系,认为一国的矿业发展一般经历萌芽、发展、转折和衰退4个时期;并通过分析澳大利亚、美国和英国等不同资源禀赋的发达国家矿业发展历史,总结了矿业发展的3种模式:"澳加"型矿业模式、"美德"型矿业模式、"英日"型矿业模式。最后,结合中国资源禀赋与经济发展特点,分析了中国矿业发展趋势,认为中国矿业正处于重大转折期,2020年后中国矿业将全面进入衰退期。
The mining industry is an important part of the Chinese economy and mining development theory can provide important theoretical support for the scientific judgment of the development of the mining industry. Here,we discuss mineral resource endowments and economic demands as two main factors affecting the development of the mining industry based on industrial economic theory. We systematically analyzed global mining industry development history over 100 years,and divided it into five stages:slow development(1900-1945),golden development(1946-1972),mining downturn(1973-1994),mining booming(1995-2008)and mining plateau(2009-). According to the industrial development of life-cycle theory we proposed the mining development cycle model under ideal conditions and reveal the inherent relationship between economic development,resource supply and demand,resource prices and mining development. We believe that mining development in a country will experience four periods such as infancy,rapid development,transition and recession. By analyzing different developed countries' mining development history with different resource endowments(e.g. Australia,the US and UK),we summarize three patterns of mining development: the Australia-Canada mining model,US-Germany mining model and UK-Japan mining model. We also analyzed the development trend of China's mining industry based on its economic and mining development history as well as resource endowment,and found that China's mining industry is at an inflection point and will very likely enter into a full recession period after 2020.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期891-899,共9页
Resources Science
基金
国土资源部地质调查项目:“中国战略性矿产安全评价与支持系统建设”(12120114052901),“矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究”(12120114093501)
关键词
矿业
发展周期
规律
发展模式
mining
development cycle
law
development pattern
