摘要
文章收集1949～2000年山东省耕地、人口、粮食等资料,定量定性分析耕地的数量、质量变化与粮食产量的相关性。用SPSS中的一元线性回归法预测人口变化趋势,对粮食总产量与其影响因素进行相关分析,发现粮食单产对粮食总产量影响最大,同时耕地质量的逐年下降是粮食增产是重要的制约因素。提出外延式和内涵式开发耕地资源是增产粮食的有效途径,为解决粮食安全问题实现耕地的可持续发展提供科学决策依据。
This paper discusses the relation between the dynamic change of cultivated lands and the grain yield based on the qualitative and quantitative data analysis available in Shandong province during the past 50 years. Population forecast was completed through regression analysis of SPSS and the coefficient between grain yield and influenced factors was made based on the correlate analysis. And find that grain yield per capital is the most crucial factor to the total amount of grain yield ,at the same time, the degression of cultivated land including quality and quantity is a decisive inhibitor.Finally,in order to solve grain security and realize the sustainable development of cultivated land, we put forward some ways by which the amount of grain yield can be improved.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
2004年第6期102-105,共4页
Areal Research and Development
关键词
耕地
粮食
人口
回归分析
山东省
cultivated land
grain
population
regression analysis
Shandong province
