摘要
应用能源、环境、经济耦合的中国 MARKAL-MACRO模型对 2 0 10到 2 0 5 0年中国的碳边际减排成本进行系统研究。给出 2 0 10、 2 0 2 0、 2 0 30、 2 0 4 0与 2 0 5 0年碳边际减排成本曲线的函数形式 ,分析不同的碳减排实施方式、减排实施起始年、以及限制核电发展等对碳边际减排成本的影响。研究结果表明 :中国的碳边际减排成本是相当高的 ,当减排率在 0 %～ 4 5 %时 ,碳边际减排成本在 0～ 2 5 0美元 / t之间 ;而且越早开始实施碳减排约束 ,在等同的减排量下碳边际减排成本将越高 ;
China's marginal carbon abatement cost for 2010 through 2050 was studied using the China MARKAL-MACRO model, an integrated energy, environmental, and economic model to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of policies and strategies to respond to climate changes in China. Mathematical functions are given for the marginal carbon abatement cost curves for 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050. The analysis also evaluates the impacts of different carbon abatement strategies, starting times, and nuclear power development limits on the marginal carbon abatement costs. The modeling results show that the marginal carbon abatement cost in China is quite high, in the range of 0~250 USD/t for reduction rates of 0%~45%. In addition, the marginal abatement cost will increase for the same amount of carbon reductions if the carbon reduction obligations are initiated sooner. Limits on nuclear power development will further raise China's marginal carbon abatement cost.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第9期1192-1195,共4页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关项目 ( 2 0 0 1BA611B0 5 0 3 )
国家自然科学基金资助项目 ( 90 2 10 0 0 9)
