摘要
采用中国数值预报创新基地最新开发的三维变分同化系统 (Grapes 3DVAR)的分析场为模式初值场 ,利用广州热带海洋气象研究所开发的南海热带气旋业务预报模式 ,在模拟试验 (控制试验 )的基础上 ,对强、弱热带西南季风作对比试验 (异常试验 )研究。试验结果表明 :除环境引导气流外 ,“黄蜂”偏心结构变化引起的偏心运动变化对热带气旋移向、移速的变化起了一定的作用 ;西南季风对热带气旋“黄蜂”的动力结构、热力结构和移动路径都有一定的影响 ;热带西南季风通过改变热带气旋的不对称结构和削弱副热带高压西侧这两个途径 ,造成热带气旋路径右偏。
Based on the simulation experiment (control experiment), comparing experiments (anomaly experiments) with stronger and weaker southwest monsoon were investigated using an operating model for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the South China Sea developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology. Its initial field was formed by Grapes3DV assimilation system developed by the Chinese Numerical Forecast Innovation Base recently. The operating model for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the South China Sea developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology is a operating model system which was approved to issue TC path in China. It's level mesh scale is 0.5×0.5 latitude and longitude degree, and the integral time scale is 120 s. The level mesh scale of Grapes3DV assimilation system used here is 0.25×0.25 latitude and longitude degree and there are 14 levels in vertical direction(1000,925,850,700,600,500,400,300,250,200,150,100,70 and 50 hPa). The analysis results show that viewing from the ambient field, the TC Vongfong generally moved to north-northwest along a southerly stream between the subtropical high and upper air cold vortex; viewing from the structure of TC, Vongfong's asymmetric movement caused by asymmetry structure change affects the TC movement to some extent. Southwest monsoon affects the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of Vongfong. Southwest monsoon reinforces the vapor transportation from the environment to the TC, strengthens the northeastern humid and heat condition and the asymmetry. Southwest monsoon influences the moving of Vongfong distinctly. Vongfong tends to move to the right (left) when southwest monsoon is stronger (weaker). Southwest monsoon affects the path of Vongfong through two approaches. One is to change the asymmetry of the TC and resulted1ed in asymmetry movement change and the other is to weaken the subtropical high. Two approaches together spur the TC to move to the right.
出处
《气象学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期841-850,共10页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
科技部 2 0 0 0年社会公益研究专项"登陆的南海热带气旋灾害预警技术研究"
科技部重点公益性研究项目"我国登陆台风灾害的监测及预报技术研究"(2 0 0 1DIA2 0 0 2 6)。
