摘要
根据 ECMWF 数值预报产品的气旋加深率、卫星云图特征、高空槽和高空急流等四个因子对气旋发展的贡献确定发展指数,以发展指数作为预报西北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的综合判据。对1991年1—6月西北太平洋的温带气旋进行试报,预报准确率比单纯的数值预报提高约25%。
The contribution of meteorological factors (such as deepening rate,cloud patterns,alofttrough and jet)for explosive cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific is analysed by using the nu-merical prediction productions from ECMWF.A compositive index FZ which depends upon thefactors is given.The compositive criterion for forecasting explosive cyclogenesis is determined.According to the technological process presented,experiments of 24-hour forecast were conductedduring January through June of 1991 over the western North Pacific.The results show that themethod has an accuracy of better than about 25%.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第1期112-116,共5页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
关键词
爆发性
气旋
指数
综合判据
预报
Explosive cyclogenesis
A compositive index
A compositive criterion
