摘要
为了准确预测我国入境旅客的规模,收集了1978～2003年中国入境游客量的值,运用多元回归分析的方法,并借助SPSS软件,对我国入境游客的规模进行了预测,建立了以预测年前3年的入境游客量为自变量的多元回归方程:X(t)=251.067+0.178(t-3)-0.441X(t-2)+1.286X(t-1)。与传统预测的时间序列等方法比较,该方法模拟、预测精度更高,更符合入境游客量的变化规模,同时可通过增加每年的实际值,动态更新方程,使之更能反映游客量的变化。
In order to predict the overseas tourist to China,value of overseas tourist in history was obtained and analyzed with regression analysis by SPSS software.A regression formula was built: X_((t))=251.067+0.178_((t-3))-0.441X_((t-2))+1.286X_((t-1)).If the value of X_((t-3)), X_((t-2)),X_((t-1))was known,the predicted value could be calculated by the formula.Compared with the traditional methods,it was more accurate and it could be modified with new datas.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
2005年第2期105-106,共2页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(49571027)。
关键词
入境旅游市场
多元回归
预测
overseas tourist
regression analysis
predict
