摘要
目的探讨广州市1984～2003年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发生的季节特征。方法应用集中度法和圆形分布法对广州市近20年来HFRS疫情资料进行处理分析。结果集中度法表明广州市历年HFRS发生的季节性不明显(M=0.2413<0.3);圆形分布平均角计算和检验假设表明广州市历年HFRS存在一定的季节高峰,病例主要集中在每年的上半年(12月中旬至次年的7月上旬);1984～1992年和1993～2003年HFRS季节分布差异不明显(M均<0.3),两个时期病例发生的季节特征亦无差别。结论广州市历年HFRS的发生呈散在分布,无明显的季节高峰;改革开放以来,外来流动人口的增加并未根本改变广州市HFRS流行特征。
Objective Explore the seasonal characters of HFRS from 1984 to 2003 in Guangzhou. Methods Dispose and analyze the data of HFRS epidemic situation in twenty years in Guangzhou applying the Muster and Circular distribution methods. Results By the Muster method, in 1984-2003,M=0.241 3, By Circular distribution method, ~r= ~0.303 4 ,=~67.803 9 ,s=~88.487 4 ,~α±s =(^-20.68 ,~156.29 ),In Reileighs test,Z=~68.042 9 ~6.907 8 _^(0.001,∞) . There wasn't significant difference between in 1984-1992 and in 1993-2003 (t=0.24)t_~0.05(∞) =1.96.Conclusion The epidemic character of HFRS in Guangzhou was sporadic in a long run and the seasonal character was indefinite; The HFRS epidemic characters in Guangzhou was unchanged ultimately due to the increasing extra floating population since the reformed and opening up policy actualized in 1992,Guangzhou,China.
出处
《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第2期127-129,共3页
Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control
