摘要
利用我国50 0多年旱涝资料,分析陕西及其东部区域历史上发生的旱涝周期及气候突变,发现陕西旱涝存在2 2年、1 6 9年左右的变化周期,陕西1 6 45年左右发生过气候突变,分别比华北地区早6～7年,比华东地区早4 0～50年。同时分析近50年气候资料发现,陕西及东部地区降水均存在着一定的周期变化,且变化有所差异。定义了陕北区域旱涝指数,在未来十年,陕北地区旱涝变化趋势是正常偏旱。
Based on the data of the Drought/Flood in the northwest, the north, and the east of China for the last 530 years, the abrupt change and the periodicity of the Drought/Flood series are analyzed. The results indicate that there is a period of 22-year and 169-year respectively in Shaanxi and an obvious abrupt change in Shaanxi in 1645,which is earlier about 6～7 years than North China, about 40～50 years than East of China. There is some periodicity characters of precipitation in Shaanxi and East China in recent 5 decades, and the variation is different. The dry and warm climate will continue to 2010s in northern Shaanxi, this is the facts that the ecosystem managing project must be faced.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期22-26,共5页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
陕西省生态办项目 (1999年 0 0 3)资助项目
