摘要
传统项目风险管理往往是根据管理者的经验来做出决策的,并且大多是采用定性分析方法,适用对象仅为完全信息。本文针对IT项目风险管理过程中存在的众多不完全信息,将粗糙集理论引入到风险决策中,对不完全信息的知识表达系统中潜在的规则进行了有效的挖掘,提出了基于粗糙集的不完全信息风险决策的一种算法,并通过实例分析,从定量的角度为风险决策提供依据。
The traditional decision-making of project risk management is often judged by the manager through experiences, and most of them adopt the qualitative analysis method, which applies only to complete information. In this paper, the rough set theory is introduced into the field of IT project risk management, which is full of inevitable incomplete information. With the method of rough set, the incomplete information in knowledge system can be well dealt with, and the potential decision-rules are explored efficiently, then an algorithm of incomplete information risk decision based on rough set theory is offered. Finally, the final rule decision is provided by a quantitative way through a case.
出处
《管理评论》
2005年第3期37-41,共5页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70271031)
高校博士点基金资助项目
