摘要
采用1960—2002年新疆11个探空站逐日观测资料,按气候特点和径流情况把新疆划分为阿尔泰山西坡,天山北坡,天山南坡,昆仑山北坡,北疆西部5个区域,分析了43a来新疆夏季0℃层平均高度变化趋势和空间分布差异.结果表明:新疆夏季0℃层平均高度43a来总体呈上升趋势,20世纪60年代经历了一个明显下降的阶段,70年代变化相对平缓,80年代初开始上升,90年代初以后上升明显,表现为突升,但均未发生显著气候突变.新疆除了昆仑山北坡0℃层下降外,其余均为明显升高;升幅从南向北、从西向东增加.尽管各地变化不尽相同,但80年代初至今的上升趋势和90年代初期开始的涌升现象较为一致.0℃层高度的上升意味着高空中低层大气气温在升高,说明新疆近年来不仅近地面气温在升高,高空同样气温在变暖.
Based on the daily observational data from 1960 to 2002 from 11 air sounding stations located in the western slopes of the Altay Mountains, northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains and the western regain of North Xinjiang, respectively, the changing trend and the difference of spatial distribution of the average height of 0 ℃ level in summer in Xinjiang were analyzed for the 43 years, according to the features of climate and runoff. By means of Mann-Kendall method, abrupt test was conducted. The results showed that there was an increasing trend of the 0 ℃ level height as a whole: In the 1960s it dropped obviously and then became relatively smooth in the 1970s. However, it rose from the 1980s, especially in the early 1990s it rose more obviously. But there was no significantly abrupt climate change. It increased gradually from south to north and from west to east in Xinjiang, with an exception of the southern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains. The increasing from the 1980s up to now was the common trend, with a local difference. The 0 ℃ level height increase indicated that the temperature at the lower level of the upper air is increasing. It is demonstrated that there is a climate change in the upper air as well as on the surface. Meanwhile, the increasing trend goes with precipitation increase, glacier shrinkage, river runoff increase and lake level rise in Xinjiang.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期376-380,共5页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
科技部重大基础研究前期研究专项(2002CCA04600)
中国气象局科学技术研究项目"沙漠气象及其生态环境的动态评估系统"
中国科学院知识创新工程项目(ZKCXZSW210)资助
关键词
0℃层高度
变化趋势
突变分析
新疆
0 ℃ level
changing trend
analysis of abrupt change
Xinjiang
