摘要
应用本世纪80年代问世的灰色系统理论来预测交通事故四项指标(死亡人数、肇事次数、受伤人数、损失折款),具有其它预测方法无法比拟的许多优点。本文首次介绍了交通事故灰色预测的原理方法。为了更好地使用和推广这种崭新的、有效的方法,文中介绍了用PC—BASIC语言编写的微机程序和程序流程图。作为这种方法具体应用的实例,文中对我国安徽省道路交通事故的四项指标进行了预测,给出了相应的灰色预测数学模型及预测值。
It has a lot of advantages to forecast four traffic accident indexes, that is, number of accidents, number of the wounded and economical loss by the use of grey system theory coming out in the 198os, which is beyond compare to other forecast methods. This paper describes first the method for forecasting traffic accidents by the use of grey system theory, and shows the microcomputer program in PC-BASIC and program flow chart for the better application and spread of this new and effective method. As an example of its application the forecast values of four traffic accident indexes in Anhui Province of China are givenin this article.
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1989年第4期50-59,共10页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
