摘要
风险分析是一门具有重要实用价值的新兴学科,可对工程风险大小作出评估,从而找到为减少风险需要投入资金和改进管理的方向。危险是可产生潜在损失的特征或一组特征,风险是危险转变为现实的概率和损失程度的综合。某工程如果出现事故后果非常严重,尽管事故出现的概率很小,其风险仍是很大的,相反,事故后果轻微,虽然事故出现的概率高,其风险则不大,也就不值得花更多的资金去降低风险,通常把风险限定在一个可以接受的水平上。W Kent Muhlbauer提出了较完整的管道风险评分法,该方法评分时对影响风险的各因素假定为独立的并考虑到最坏状况,其得分值具有主观性和相对性。引起管道事故的原因有第三方破坏、腐蚀、设计和操作四大类,分别对这些因素进行分析评分,结合管输介质的危险性和影响面得出相对风险数,风险数越大表明风险越小。美国管道事故中第三方破坏占40％左右,第三方破坏因素可分为六个方面,分别介绍了其评分方法。
Risk analysis, a new and developing science of pratical value, deals with the evaluation on how much risk exists in a project, and eventually reveals the proper orientation for cost and management needed for risk reduction. Hazard is defined as a characteristic or a set of characteristics of having potential losses, while risk is the combination of the probability that hazard results in failure and the degree of losses. A project having a very severe loss in case of failure will have a high risk even though its failure probability is very low; by contrast, if it is a minor loss,the risk will be low regardless of its high probability, and it will not pay to allocate excessive resource for risk reduction. Risk is usually controlled to an acceptable level. W ?Kent Muhlbauer introduces a relatively complete set of method for pipeline risk scoring. During scoring each risk factor is assummed to be an individuality and the worst case is considered. The scores are characterized by subjectivity and relativity. The factors that contribute to pipeline risk are catalogued into four classes: third party damage, corrosion, design and incorrect operations. A score is assigned to each factor, and the relative risk score is then obtained with the considerations for the hazard and importance of the medium transported. The higher the score, the smaller the risk represented. In U. S. A, third party damage accounts for 40% or so in pipeline failures. There are six factors in third party damage, for which scoring method is introduced.
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
1995年第3期11-15,64,共6页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
