摘要
结合陆浑水库实际情况在分析影响水库防洪调度主要不确定性因素的基础上,讨论了风险分析的计算方法,采用蒙特卡罗模拟技术给出了水库防洪调度风险分析的实施程序。采用陆浑水库分期运用方案,对不同频率入库洪水在不同的汛限水位下造成的洪灾风险率进行了估计。结果表明,陆浑水库前、后汛期的汛限水位均可适当抬高以增加水库的兴利库容、实现汛期的洪水资源化,为陆浑水库提供了最优分期汛限水位方案。
Uncertainty factors influencing flood operation risk are analyzed, and risk analysis methods are discussed connected the actual situation of Luhun Reservoir. The operational program of the risk analysis for reservoir＇s flood control operation is given used Monte-carlo simulation technology. The flood risk rate, which is caused by driven up different scheme of flood control limiting level, is assessed adopted the staged operation scheme. The results show that flood control limiting levels of the earlier and later flood stage could be driven up properly to increase the active storage and realize the Flood-water Resources Utilization. Finally, the optimal reservoir flood control limiting water levels by stage are supplied for Luhun reservoir manager＇s reference.
出处
《灌溉排水学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第5期56-59,共4页
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划"973"项目(G199904360802)
关键词
陆浑水库
风险分析
蒙特卡罗
洪水资源化
汛限水住
Luhun reservoir
risk analysis
Monte-carlo
flood-water resources utilization
flood control limiting level
