摘要
地震烈度发生概率和地震烈度超越概率都是衡量场地地震危险性的重要指标。地震烈度发生概率的计算方法也是人们比较关注的问题之一。本文根据目前工程地震和地震减灾研究中比较常用的Cornell类地震活动性模型和反映地震时、空、强非均匀性的地震活动性模型,推导了场地地震烈度发生概率的计算表达式。通过计算实例,讨论了其与场地地震烈度极值概率(即超越概率差,通常被用来替代地震烈度发生概率)的差异,认为在一般情况下,两者在数值上有相当的差异。
Occurrence probability of intensity and exceeding probability of intensity are all important indicators of seismic hazard for a given site. The calculation of occurrence probability is one of the problems which have been paid much attention. According to the Cornell type seismicity model commonly used in the engineering seismology and disaster mitigation and the seismicity model reflecting imhomgenity of seismicity in time, space and magnitude, we deduced the formula for occurrence probability of intensity. The different between occurrence probability and extreme probability (which is the difference of exceeding probability, usually be used to substitute the value of occurrence probability) was discussed. It is a rather big difference in the value for ordinary circumstance.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第2期195-201,共7页
Earthquake Research in China
基金
国家地震局地球物理研究所论著号:95A0079
关键词
地震烈度
减灾
概率模型
地震工程
泊松分布
Intensity, Occurrence probability, Extreme probability, Disater mitigation, Engineering Seismology
