摘要
建立浙江省各历时年最大降水系列数据库,拟降水指标变量Rm与降水频率PRm初步诊断6小时以内为短历时强降水最具风险时段。以极值统计学为理论基础,讨论了该方法在短历时强降水风险设计中的适用性。在已知有限的极值事件概率信息下,确立极值分布函数以求得重现期大于或等于2年的降水历时关系,以进一步揭示短历时强降水的潜在风险趋势。文章通过实例研究验证了该方法的可行性。
Based on the database that be made up of each diachronic max.precipitation in Zhejiang Province,the short diachronic strong precipitation among 6 hours being furthest bear risk is diagnosed by using the guideline variable Rm and frequency PRm. According to the Extremum Statistics and its applicability in designing a short diachronic strong precipitation risk is studied. On this condition that the probability extremum event is known to establish extremum chorology function in order to count the connection on precipitation and.period of time in return period is longer or equal 2 years and ulteriorly open out the trend of latent risk in a short diachronic strong precipitation. Through studying an instance and feasibility of the method is validated in the paper.
出处
《科技通报》
2005年第6期657-661,667,共6页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
关键词
短历时强降水
极值分布函数
降水-历时-概率关系
风险
short diachronic strong precipitation
extremum chorology function
the connection on precipitation,period of time and probability
risk
