摘要
本文选取时间序列1985～2002年，以粮谷、茶叶和棉花为例，通过计量分析，从国内因素和国际因素两个方面对我国农产品出口不稳定性的成因进行了讨论。研究发现：不同农产品的不稳定性不同，受到的影响因素亦各不相同，通过影响国内需求波动和稳定国内供给可以显著降低不同商品的出口不稳定性程度，国外因素对于单个农产品的影响则没有国内因素显著；而考察其整体影响因素可知，国内的需求波动对于出口的价格和数量的不稳定性影响显著，国内的供给波动仅对出口额有影响，而国外需求波动则对出口量和出口额均有显著影响，对出口价格则无显著影响。
No doubt it is important to explore export instability of primary products.This paper employs the data of grain,tea and cotton from 1985 to 2002 to make an empirical analysis and make an examination of the cause of export instability from international and domestic perspective.The results argue that different factors have different effects on the individual agricultural product,which has different export instability.While for the product combination,domestic demand has a significant effect on the instability of price and quantity,at the same time, domestic supply only has a significant effect on the instability of export earnings,while international demand has an effect on the volume and earnings of export without significant effect on the price.
出处
《中国农村观察》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第1期2-10,共9页
China Rural Survey
