摘要
针对航空产品工程计划中工序作业时间小样本输入条件的特征,提出了一种基于灰色系统理论的工序作业时间预测方法。该方法根据工序作业时间历史积累的数据,建立灰色预测模型,将工程计划中具有灰色特性的不确定性工序作业时间白化为确定值。在此基础上提出了时距折算原理,将4种搭接关系和搭接时距通过时距折算模型转化为一般时距,从而将搭接型网络计划转化为一般网络计划,推导出复杂航空产品工程计划网络时间参数计算模型,并得到关键路径和关键工序判定准则。最后,给出了航空产品工程计划网络关键路径搜索算法,通过一个算例说明了算法的有效性。
Aiming at the characteristics of small sampling in aeronautic-product project scheme, a new prediction method to acquire the time limit of working process was studied based on Grey System theory. A grey prediction model was constructed according to the accumulated data in history of working procedure, and with this model the grey time limit was whitened to certain value. Based on the model, the principle of time delay conversion was proposed to transform spliced relation and time delay to general time delay. Therefore the spliced network could be changed to general network. In turn, the model calculating time-parameter of complex network plan was deduced. Furthermore, the judgment criteria for critical path and working process were obtained. Finally, the search algorithm for critical path in aeronautic-product project scheme network was presented, and the effectiveness of the algorithm was verified by an example.
出处
《计算机集成制造系统》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第2期192-197,共6页
Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems
基金
国家863/CIMS主题资助项目(2002AA413710)。~~
关键词
搭接网络计划
关键路径
灰色预测
小样本
spliced network plan
critical path
gray prediction
small sampling
