摘要
简要介绍了枯水径流预报的传统方法之一——前后期径流相关法及时间序列分析方法中的最优模糊划分自激励门限自回归模型和非季节性多元自回归模型、建立了泾、洛、渭河三大自流引水灌区泾惠渠(泾河张家山)、洛惠渠(北洛河(氵状)头)和宝鸡峡引渭灌区(渭河林家村)的枯水期(11—4月)候、旬、月平均流量预报模型.在对模型的评定与检验基础上,推荐了可用于三大灌区枯水期灌溉水源的作业预报漠型,提出了改进和完善现有模型及进一步研究的方向。
The traditional preceeding-current flow correlation model (PCFC), the optimal fuzzy partitioned self-excited threshold aoturegressive model (OFPSETAR) and the non-seasonal multivariate autoregressive model (MAR). were briefly described, forecasting models of seasonal (five-day, ten-day and monthly) irrigation water sources during low flow periods (November to April) for the three large irridation districts (Jinghui, Luohue and Baojixa irrigation districts, respectively) in central Shaanxi were developed, operational fore-casting models for the three irrigation districts were recommended in accordance with the results of model identification and verification, and suggestions for further improvement and investigation of the recommended models were prapounded.
出处
《西北水资源与水工程》
1996年第1期34-41,共8页
Northwest Water Resources & Water Engineering
