摘要
在总结目前单目标旱情评价方法的基础上，提出了区域旱情综合评价预测方法，建立了模糊评价预测模型。选择了地表水、地下水、土壤水和降水作为干旱影响的主要因素．应用山东省的实际资料，对1972—2003年旱情状况进行了综合评价，评价结果与实际相符，评价预测结果将为制定抗旱预案、减少旱灾损失提供科学依据。
Based on the single-objective methods of drought assessment, a new comprehensive method for drought assessment and forecast was proposed. In this method, a fuzzy assessment and forecast model in constructed; and 4 factors surface water, ground water, soil water and precipitation water were selected as main affecting factors for drought assessment and forecast. Using the data observed from 1972 to 2003 in Shandong Province, the droughts taken place during this period were assessed comprehensively, and the results, which can be used for drought-countermeasure planning, accord with the reality of Shandong Province.
出处
《山东大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
2006年第2期58-61,共4页
Journal of Shandong University（Engineering Science）
关键词
模糊理论
综合评判
旱情评价
旱情预测
fuzzy theory
comprehensive assessment
drought assessment
drought forecast
