摘要
基于灰色系统理论,以2001年以来我国旅游电子商务市场潜力为依据,初步构建了我国旅游电子商务市场潜力的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型;并对预测模型的精度进行了检验;分析探讨了提高预测精度的方法。然后据此模型对我国旅游电子商务市场潜力进行了预测。据初步估算2009年我国旅游电子商务市场潜力将超过100亿元。
It is useful to exactly forecast the electronic commence market scale in the tourism Industry of China for both government management and enterprise investment decisions. Linear regression models are often used in market investigations. But its precision is worth discussion. The research suggests that compared with the Grey Model of GM （1, 1） the linear regression model has lower precision. So the Grey Model is much more suitable for forecasting the electronic market scale in the tourism Industry of China. The research is beneficial to tourism forecast. It is estimated that by the year of 2009, the electronic market scale in tourism industry in China will be up to more than 10 billion Chinese yuan.
出处
《石家庄经济学院学报》
2006年第2期162-165,共4页
Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics
基金
武汉市社会科学基金项目
编号(05047)
关键词
旅游电子商务
市场潜力预测
灰色系统
e-business in tourism Industry
, market scale forecasting
grey system
