摘要
以覆盖甘肃省庆阳市的陆地卫星(Landsat TM/ETM)遥感数据以及1980—2000年统计资料与实地调研资料为数据源,利用系统动力学模型构建庆阳市景观演替模拟模型,通过分析景观变化与驱动因子的关系,模拟庆阳市景观演替的时空模式,开展参考模式、生态模式与经济模式下的情景分析,为制定环境保护与区域发展规划提供决策参考信息。
The dynamic simulation and scenario analyses on the spatio- temporal patterns of landscape change has become a hotspot in the research field of landscape ecology,is involved with many driving factors. The landscape change of Loess Plateau areas, characterized by ecologically fragile,is more and more concerned by scholars. Affected by the increase of population as well as environmental degradation,great changes have taken place in the structure of landscape in the Loess Plateau areas, which further has resulted in a seties of environment crises. This paper reclassified the driving factors into three categories （stable controlling factors,seasonal changing factors and socio- economic factors） and revealed the influencing direction and intensity of different factors on landscape change by logistic analyses between landscape change and its driving factors. Regarding the system dynamic model as the modeling framework, this paper designed models to simulate the spatio- temporal patterns of landscape change in Qingyang prefecture. In terms of the results of the system dynamic model of landscape change and the change of social and economic factors, this paper realized the dynamic simulations of landscape change as well as the scenario analyses of baseline, ecologically - oriented and economically - oriented models in Qingyang prefecture. The comparisons of the simulated results of baseline, ecologically - oriented and economically- oriented scenarios disclose the competitions and successions of landscapes in spatial and temporal scales affected by the integrated effects from all kinds of driving factors. The findings show that some effective measures should be taken to hold back the irreversible but irrational conversions among landscapes to protect the eco- environment and go along with a sustainable development in Qingyang prefecture. In this sense, the research results will serve the decision - making on landscape planning, the rational exploitation of land resources and the implementation of sustainable development strategy of Qingyang prefecture.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第3期101-105,共5页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70503025)
关键词
景观演替
情景分析
系统动力学模型
庆阳
landscape change
scenario analyses
system dynamic model
Qingyang
