摘要
为探讨ENSO与广东防区内的热带气旋的关系,利用统计方法对1950～2003年期间进入广东防区的热带气旋的累计气旋能量ACE变量和其它变量与ENSO的关系进行了分析,发现在年的尺度上进入广东防区的热带气旋对ENSO的响应很弱,但在6～8月表现出与Ni?o3,4指数的正相关,在10月份表现出明显的负相关。热带气旋的强度、数量、时间等在10月份都与Ni?o3,4指数表现出明显的负相关,即在拉尼娜出现当年的10月份热带气旋趋向于数量增多,强风暴的生命史增长,影响时间较长,强风暴强度也趋向更强,破坏力增大;而在厄尔尼诺年,热带气旋趋向于数量减少,强风暴的生命史缩短,影响时间较短,强风暴会趋向减弱,破坏力会减低。这里ACE变量很好地反映了广东防区内热带气旋与ENSO的这种关系。
In order to discuss the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclones that are likely to endanger Guangdong, study is done of the relationship between ENSO and the tropical cyclones entering the Guangdong Defense Area during the years from 1950 to 2003 with regard to their Accumulated Cyclone Energy （ACE） and other variables. It is found that the cyclones affecting Guangdong respond to the ENSO indices very weakly on the yearly scale, with considerable seasonal variation. During the months from June to August, positive correlation can be found between the cyclones and Nino3, 4 indices in June, July and August but negative correlation in October. Besides, intensity, number and lifetime of tropical cyclones occurring in October indicate greater negative correlation with ENSO. In other words, more tropical cyclones are expected in October of the years of La Nina, with longer life cycle, greater storm strength and more destruction and fewer in October of El Nino years with shorter life cycle and less destruction. This study also shows that ACE can satisfactorily indicate how tropical cyclones correspond to ENSO.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第3期273-277,共5页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
广东省气象局科技项目(编号0421)
