摘要
本文讨论了潜伏期和传染期均服从威布尔分布、易感性随机变化的一类随机流行病模型,并利用M CM C算法对潜伏期、传染期的参数和易感性的超参数作了贝叶期推断.这种分析方法比以往各种方法更适用于各类疾病.
A stochastic epidemic model featuring Weibull - distributed latent periods and infectious periods and randomly varying heterogeneity among susceptible is considered. A Junkov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed for performing Bayesian inference for the parameters governing the latent-periods length,the infectious- periods length and the hyper- parameters governing the heterogeneity of susceptibility. This method of analysis applies to a wider class of diseases than methods proposed previously.
出处
《数学理论与应用》
2006年第2期74-77,共4页
Mathematical Theory and Applications
