摘要
回顾了８０年代到９０年代中期，气候学研究在几个方面的重要进展。共分析了五个问题：①２０世纪气候变率，重点讨论年代际变率及气候突变；②ＥＮＳＯ模拟与预测，总结比较了各种模式的模拟与预测结果，着重讨论了９０年代前半期ＥＮＳＯ发展的特点；③ＥＮＳＯ与季风，指出亚洲夏季风在ＥＮＳＯ循环中的重要作用；④气候可预报性研究，总结了月、季预报试验，介绍了用观测下边界强迫ＡＧＣＭ的研究结果；⑤气候变化成因分析，着重说明温室效应研究的不确定性及自然因子如太阳活动、火山活动在气候变化中的作用。
Recent progress in climatological studies for the period of 1980's and early 1990's were reviewed.The following problems were discussed :(1) Climate variabilitied in the 20th century .Inter-decadal variabilities and abrupt change of climate were emphasized;(2)Simulation and prediction of ENSO.The results of a series of models were compared each other. Distinguishing feature of ENSO in early 1990's was studied;(3)ENSO and monsoon. The important role of summer monsoon in evolution of ENSO cycle was indicated;(4)Climate predictability . Results of monthly and seasonal prediction and simulation with observed external forcing were reviewed; (5)Analysis of factors responsible for climatic change.Uncertainties of greenhouse effect and role of solar activity and volcanism were examined.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
1996年第2期169-177,共9页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
气候变化
可预报性
气候预测
气候学
Climate change ,Climate predictability ,Climate prediction .
