摘要
托宾曾预言,企业资产的边际q值是决定投资的重要因素。这一假说是否成立一直是理论界的一个谜,而对它的检验可大致反映一国投资的理性程度。本文利用结构向量自回归模型,分析了我国投资与q值之间的关系。结果表明,无论是短期的冲击响应,还是长期的协整关系,托宾q假说均不成立。相反,存在明显的“反托宾q”现象。这说明我国投资具有相当的非理性成分。进一步的分析表明,q值在行业间的分布差异与垄断行业的投资保护,以及过度竞争行业的投机行为相互交织,是造成上述结果的主要原因。由此本文提出了加快垄断行业投资体制改革、合理引导企业资金的政策建议。
Whether Tobin＇s q , as Tobin predicted , can have positive effect on investment ？ This problem has been faced by academe for long time. The test of this hypothesis can indicate the efficiency of investment. This article used VAR model and the method of decomposition of mixed shock to test the relationship between investment and Tobin＇s q. Both the impulse reaction and cointegration relation indicated that the Tobin＇s hypothesis didn＇t come into existence. In contrast, there was apparently a reverse version of Tobin＇s hypothesis. Further analysis revealed that the difference of different industries＇ q, mixed with the investment protection of monopolization industries and speculation of excessively competitive industries, was the main reason for above result. Then, we made suggestions including quickening the reform of monopolization industries＇ investment system and teasonably guiding enterprises＇ fund.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第12期146-155,共10页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
