摘要
本文认为,无论从实际供应的变化还是从预期供应的变化看,粮食储备的增量与存量都可能影响当年粮食市场价格,并且可能解释某些不能用生产和进出口数量来解释的市场价格变动。在无法直接获取粮食储备总量的情况下,比较准确地估算粮食储备规模的变化,进而分析储备规模变动与粮食价格变动的关系,可以帮助我们更好地认识粮食储备平衡粮食市场长期供求波动与价格波动的机制,同时也有利于比较正确地认识粮食安全形势,制定更符合实际的生产、贸易与储备协同的粮食政策。
Grain price in the market can be affected by any changes in the actual or anticipated grain supplies, along with the amount of added stock or existing reserve of grain. That can, to some extent, explain price fluctuations in market, which can hardly be associated with grain available from production or import-export. Since the total scale of grain reserve is not available, changes in grain reserve and the relation between the reserve and price fluctuations might help us to understand the role of grain reserve in balancing the long-term supply-demand fluctuations vs. price trends. In the meantime, the food security situation can be better evaluated, which is a more practical foundation of food policy-makers
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第11期9-14,共6页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
